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Market Update

GTC WM Trendline – December 2015

Global – Oil on a slippery slope? Global equity markets delivered positive returns in the fourth quarter despite a relatively poor performance in the latter half of December. In Dollar terms the MSCI World Index returned 5.11% with the MSCI Emerging Markets Index coming under considerable pressure returning a paltry 0.26%. Read the full article Local – Interest rate rise? Indicative of developments in emerging market economies the MSCI Emerging Market Index surprisingly showed a positive return of 0.26% for the quarter but lagged significantly behind the MSCI World Index. A stronger U.S. Dollar together with renewed concerns over the Chinese economy provided significant headwinds. However of more significance for the South African market was the totally unexpected move on the part of President Zuma who dismissed the well thought of Minister of Finance Nhlanhla Nene and replaced him with a relatively unknown and inexperienced David van...
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GTC EB Trendline – December 2015

Global – Oil on a slippery slope? Global equity markets delivered positive returns in the fourth quarter despite a relatively poor performance in the latter half of December. In Dollar terms the MSCI World Index returned 5.11% with the MSCI Emerging Markets Index coming under considerable pressure returning a paltry 0.26%. Read the full article Local – Interest rate rise? Indicative of developments in emerging market economies the MSCI Emerging Market Index surprisingly showed a positive return of 0.26% for the quarter but lagged significantly behind the MSCI World Index. A stronger U.S. Dollar together with renewed concerns over the Chinese economy provided significant headwinds. However of more significance for the South African market was the totally unexpected move on the part of President Zuma who dismissed the well thought of Minister of Finance Nhlanhla Nene and replaced him with a relatively unknown and inexperienced David van...
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GTC EB Trendline – September 2015

“In every crisis there is opportunity” – Chinese proverb This past quarter has been a tumultuous and extremely volatile one for global stock markets driven largely by uncertainties over a potential increase in interest rates in the United States and a deteriorating Chinese economy with all its implications for global growth. Read the full article Where to, Interest Rates? Extreme volatility was a feature of the local market over the quarter and although the JSE/ALSI managed to close September having gained 0.23% over the previous month it traded for the better part of the month in negative territory. In July, despite a lower than expected CPI figure and a lacklustre economy, the S.A. Reserve Bank somewhat unexpectedly raised the repo rate from 5.75% to 6.0%, the first rate increase since July 2014. Despite the National Energy Regulator (NERSA) rejecting Eskom’s request for an additional tariff hike and the sharp decline in the oil...
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GTC WM Trendline – September 2015

“In every crisis there is opportunity” – Chinese proverb This past quarter has been a tumultuous and extremely volatile one for global stock markets driven largely by uncertainties over a potential increase in interest rates in the United States and a deteriorating Chinese economy with all its implications for global growth. Read the full article Where to, Interest Rates? Extreme volatility was a feature of the local market over the quarter and although the JSE/ALSI managed to close September having gained 0.23% over the previous month it traded for the better part of the month in negative territory. In July, despite a lower than expected CPI figure and a lacklustre economy, the S.A. Reserve Bank somewhat unexpectedly raised the repo rate from 5.75% to 6.0%, the first rate increase since July 2014. Despite the National Energy Regulator (NERSA) rejecting Eskom’s request for an additional tariff hike and the sharp decline in the oil...
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GTC WM Trendline – June 2015

Global – “Greeks bearing gifts?” The first half of the year and more importantly the last three months in particular, have been more than eventful. In spite of disappointing U.S. economic data, the Greek financial crisis and concerns over a slowing Chinese economy, world equity markets have managed to weather the storm and although not entirely unscathed, have retained a remarkable degree of buoyancy. Read the full article Domestic – Molefe to the rescue! The June quarter closed off on a subdued note, with equities and bonds off their previous highs. The JSE/ALSI closed the quarter at 51806 points, some 3382 points below its all-time high of 55188, recorded on 26 April 2015. All other major tradable indices closed down, except for the IND125, which yielded a positive result of 0.94% for the closing month. It is indicative of the volatility of markets that on a year on year basis...
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GTC EB Trendline – June 2015

Global – “Greeks bearing gifts?” The first half of the year and more importantly the last three months in particular, have been more than eventful. In spite of disappointing U.S. economic data, the Greek financial crisis and concerns over a slowing Chinese economy, world equity markets have managed to weather the storm and although not entirely unscathed, have retained a remarkable degree of buoyancy. Read the full article Domestic – Molefe to the rescue! The June quarter closed off on a subdued note, with equities and bonds off their previous highs. The JSE/ALSI closed the quarter at 51806 points, some 3382 points below its all-time high of 55188, recorded on 26 April 2015. All other major tradable indices closed down, except for the IND125, which yielded a positive result of 0.94% for the closing month. It is indicative of the volatility of markets that on a year on year basis...
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GTC Trendline – March 2015

See-saw Margery “Dow” The first quarter of 2015 saw global markets reach record highs before falling off towards the end of March. The MSCI World posted 1.8% (USD) over the quarter, with strong contributions coming from Japan, Europe and the U.S while the UK declined by 0.95%. Quantitative easing in the Eurozone and China initially helped drive up equity prices. Crude oil prices, having experienced dramatic falls in the previous quarter, also stabilised bringing some calm to what had been a highly volatile situation. Market volatility was a key feature of markets over the period as economic news continued to blow hot and cold resulting in risk-on, risk-off being the order of the day. Read the full article FIAT LUX – Let there be light… South African markets rose over the quarter on the back of the global risk on environment with the ALSI posting 5.8% (ZAR) led higher by Financials (13.7%) and Industrials...
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GTC Trendline – December 2014

The world’s afloat on oil The key feature of the last quarter of 2014 was unquestionably the somewhat unexpected and rapid decline in the oil price which dropped by a mammoth forty odd percent. This created increasing volatility in global markets which was further exacerbated by a decision to maintain interest rates at all-time lows. This increased volatility was evidenced by wild fluctuations in the S&P 500 which declined almost 5% mid-December to rebound strongly at month end to close just below record highs. This sudden rebound was occasioned by a statement from the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) that they would be “patient” with regard to the normalisation of monetary policy. Read the full article Quo vadis Eskom? Local market sentiment has been dominated by a variety of factors but in particular has been influenced by the somewhat unexpected...
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GTC Trendline – June 2014

Equity markets resurgent Both global and domestic stock markets overcame a brief and relatively mild sell off during the first half of April , surging into higher territory in the second quarter of 2014. An ongoing global economic recovery, diminishing concerns over Ukraine and Iraq, and stimulative monetary policy from central banks provided strong backdrop support to equity markets. Read the full article Geopolitical tensions The second quarter produced its fair share of geopolitical news highlighted by the ongoing crisis in Ukraine and the battle between rebel and government forces for control of Iraq. Although neither situation had a long lasting or mate- rial effect on stock markets over the quarter, it raises con- cern on how armed conflict and other geo-political concerns tend to impact financial markets. Read the full article Local economic woes Over the quarter the domestic market continued...
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