GTC Trendline – First Quarter 2024
Overview
We generally try and pick out a theme for our Trendline, and specifically our Market Commentary. The end of last year was themed on the volatility around the world, based on several dominant macro-happening. We wished for a boring start to the year last quarter and right now we’re still trying to find a prevailing mood or theme for the year to come, investment-wise.
Global inflation may be getting sorted, or maybe it isn’t…, certainly here at home, most pundits have so far been wrong, with the overwhelming sentiment that rates would be dropping by now, proving to be completely wrong.
The macro issues of conflict which we spoke of several months ago, remain front-of-stage with the Middle Eastern tensions elevated since then. Over the next year or so, more than half the world will be going to the polls. Here at home the outcome of our own South African elections remains an elephant in the room which we’re watching closely, while the result of the US polls will almost certainly influence trade and economic policy with us, and therefore market returns for us.
Let’s see where we go from here. We’re very conscious that safe driving techniques cannot rely on rear-mirror observations alone. Watching the road in front is, of course, more important.
