GTC Trendline – First Quarter 2021
Overview
The IMF upgraded its global growth forecast to 5.5% for 2021, while its 2022 forecast remained unchanged at 4.2%. This move was hardly surprising given the continued stimulus provided by global central banks along with a strong vaccine drive over the quarter. As developed nations are vaccinating at a faster rate than emerging nations, we do expect their economic recovery to mirror this. Economies which are highly dependent on tourism will likely continue to struggle in the face of subdued international travel.
Locally, business confidence remained weak while consumer confidence increased on the back of stronger household finances.
Global equities rose on improved vaccine distribution and optimism around robust economic growth to come in 2021. This prompted a further rotation into cyclicals and value stocks. In dollar terms the MSCI world index delivered 4.9% outpacing the MSCI Emerging Market index at 2.3%
