GTC Trendline – December 2014
The world’s afloat on oil The key feature of the last quarter of 2014 was unquestionably the somewhat unexpected and rapid decline in the oil price which dropped by a mammoth forty odd percent. This created increasing volatility in global markets which was further exacerbated by a decision to maintain interest rates at all-time lows. This increased volatility was evidenced by wild fluctuations in the S&P 500 which declined almost 5% mid-December to rebound strongly at month end to close just below record highs. This sudden rebound was occasioned by a statement from the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) that they would be “patient” with regard to the normalisation of monetary policy. Read the full article Quo vadis Eskom? Local market sentiment has been dominated by a variety of factors but in particular has been influenced by the somewhat unexpected... Read More
GTC Trendline – June 2014
Equity markets resurgent Both global and domestic stock markets overcame a brief and relatively mild sell off during the first half of April , surging into higher territory in the second quarter of 2014. An ongoing global economic recovery, diminishing concerns over Ukraine and Iraq, and stimulative monetary policy from central banks provided strong backdrop support to equity markets. Read the full article Geopolitical tensions The second quarter produced its fair share of geopolitical news highlighted by the ongoing crisis in Ukraine and the battle between rebel and government forces for control of Iraq. Although neither situation had a long lasting or mate- rial effect on stock markets over the quarter, it raises con- cern on how armed conflict and other geo-political concerns tend to impact financial markets. Read the full article Local economic woes Over the quarter the domestic market continued... Read More
GTC Trendline – September 2014
The ghost of irrational exuberance? Global Perhaps the ghost of irrational exuberance came back to haunt some world stock markets during the third quarter of 2014. The quarter has seen considerable volatility in world markets heralded by a rampant dollar on the back of strong economic growth, a weaker Euro on the back of renewed tensions in the Russia/Ukraine standoff, concerns over the sustainability of economic growth in China and a downgrading of Emerging Markets on concerns over commodity pricing. Read the full article. Who put the lights out? Domestic Despite disappointing economic data and ongoing labour unrest, the local stock market continued its meteoric rise over the quarter with the FTSE/JSE ALSI reaching an all-time high on the 29th July of 52,323. This stellar performance was largely influenced by carry trades in which foreign investors are able to source... Read More
GTC Trendline – March 2014
Salient Points from the Budget Speech “So the new economic order we seek cannot just be a pact amongst elites, a coalition amongst stakeholders with vested interests. Nor can it be built on populist slogans or unrealistic promises. Our history tells us that progress has to be built on a vision and strategy shared by leaders and the people- A vision founded on realism and evidence” – Pravin Gordhan, Budget Speech 2014. This philosophy espoused in the preamble to this year’s budget signalled the intention of the fiscus to address once again the serious problem of the gross inequality within the South African economy. It heralded a budget, which while fairly mundane, was nevertheless squarely directed to benefit the less fortunate in our population. Read the full article Market Commentary The quarter was characterized by a market roller coaster ride alternating... Read More
