CEO Editorial – Quarter 4 2025

Gary Mockler
Group Chief Executive Officer

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Recent market outcomes have been strong, but this edition of Trendline is not about celebrating returns; it is about recognising that the environment in which those returns were generated is changing in important and increasingly visible ways.

Across global markets, assumptions that have shaped investment decisions for decades are being tested, not through isolated events but through a gradual shift in how power, resources, and economic influence are exercised. 

Access to critical inputs, the reliability of supply chains, and the growing willingness of major economies to prioritise national interest over established convention are no longer background considerations; they are becoming defining features of the investment landscape.

At the same time, markets continue to deliver outcomes that appear reassuring on the surface, with equity returns remaining strong and financial conditions broadly supportive.  History suggests that these periods often demand the greatest discipline, not because risks are obvious, but because favourable performance can mask the early signals of change and encourage comfort where caution is more appropriate.

Several of the articles in this edition explore these dynamics from different perspectives, examining how scarcity, leverage, and shifting global priorities are reshaping the context in which investment decisions are made.  While the angles differ, the underlying message is consistent: the challenge for investors is less about predicting what comes next and more about ensuring portfolios are structured to remain resilient as conditions evolve.

For South African investors, this perspective carries particular relevance.  The country’s strategic attributes, market depth, and institutional familiarity continue to matter in a world increasingly focused on reliability and access, even as recent local market performance serves as a reminder that strong returns should be understood in context rather than assumed to persist.

At GTC, our approach remains anchored in structure, diversification, and long-term perspective, recognising that when long-standing assumptions come under review, preparation matters more than prediction and discipline matters more than conviction.

We trust this edition of Trendline provides useful context as you consider the forces shaping markets beyond the immediate horizon.