November 12, 2025

What constitutes enough? The actuarial shortcut of ‘20 years in retirement’ is dated.  If you’re 40 today, you can reasonably expect to live 15–20 years longer than your parents. That potentially doubles your retirement duration from two decades to four… without a matching extension to your working life.  Even if retirement ages haven’t changed much, the old replacement‑ratio heuristics needs upgrading, or you risk a long, underfunded victory lap.  ‘Enough’ shouldn’t be measured as a capital amount, but rather as a sustainable cashflow. Our discipline here is to model retirement in phases – go‑go, slow‑go, and then no‑go, stress‑testing expenses, markets, and inflation through each of these.  GTC uses a rules‑based review process in this regard, leaning heavily on in‑house tools like TrueNorth to keep assumptions honest and portfolios aligned to mandate.  The output you need is not a single... Read More

  David Seligman Fund Manager       _______________________________________________________________________________________________________ So, GTC thinks that the 2025 Nobel Economics Prize is relevant to our investors.  Here’s why: In today’s high-tech world focused on rapid growth and consumer spending, it comes as something of asurprise to realise that sustained improvement in living standards is a relatively recent phenomenon in humankind’s history. Prior to the Industrial revolution some 250 years ago, there was relatively little economic growth for millennia.  This is despite some notable philosophical and scientific advancements in ancient Greece and Rome and a revival of classical knowledge during the Renaissance.  Leonardo da Vinci may have designed a helicopter, but it didn’t get off the ground for another few centuries!  Similarly, despite China leading the world in technological advances until the 14th century (think paper and gunpowder), this did not translate into improved... Read More

Jillian Larkan Head – Healthcare Consulting   _______________________________________________________________________________________________________ A real life lesson about how theoretical financial planning suddenly becomes real Editor’s note At GTC, we believe true financial planning goes beyond numbers – it’s about life planning.  In this personal reflection, one of our senior advisors shares a deeply human story of a life-changing health event which she puts into context, reminding us all of the real-world consequences of proper planning in terms of insurance, investments, and financial decisions and how they impact on relationships and living a balanced prepared life. Heart attack… Just saying the words still feels surreal.  It’s one of those events that happen to other people – until it happened to me.  And yet, I lived through it.  The seriousness on the faces of the doctors and nurses in the emergency room told me what I... Read More

  Manty Seligman Director – Asset Management     _______________________________________________________________________________________________________ The shifting giants of the S&P 500 and JSE:  Why GTC’s Multimanager Strategy is built for the long haul Over the past three decades, the makeup of the world’s major stock indices has changed dramatically.  The top 20 companies by market capitalisation on both the S&P 500 and the JSE All Share Index have evolved in response to technological innovation, economic transformation, and shifting consumer behaviour.  This dynamic environment presents a clear message to investors: long-term success requires more than a ‘buy and hold’ approach.  It demands strategic oversight, adaptability, and professional guidance – hallmarks of GTC’s multimanager investment philosophy. A tale of two indices: From industrial titans to tech trailblazers In the early 1990s, the S&P 500 was dominated by industrials, oil majors, and consumer staples.  Names like General... Read More

Gary Mockler Group Chief Executive Officer   ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________ You may have noticed that the picture on the front cover of the Trendline is of a yacht, under full sail with calm conditions.  On the basis that a picture paints a thousand words, our illustration portrays favourable investment conditions prevailing without any mishaps occurring.  The boat is a metaphor for an investor, as sailing always involves some degree of inherent risk, regardless of the prevailing conditions.  The fact that my opening paragraph occupies several lines describing this picture perhaps erodes the metaphor that pictures are more descriptive than words, I guess…   Investment markets have indeed continued the positive trends that have evolved over the course of 2025 with the last quarter giving equity returns of almost 13% locally, and 7% from developed markets internationally.  Gold continues shining, evading the R4... Read More

Market commentary  Local equities ended the quarter some +12.8% up, primarily driven by the +50.8% Resources sector gain.  The Industrials sector added +3.7%, Listed Property +6.7% and Financials +0.9%.  Gold and Platinum counters have gained double to triple digit returns over the year as the underlying commodity price continues to run amid global demand.  SA Inc. (companies whose  earnings are overwhelmingly linked to our own economy) has struggled over the year as investors have preferred mining companies.  The broader SA equity market outside of the top ten performing stocks have nonetheless yielded positive single digit returns over the year. The South African economy grew by some +0.8% quarter-on-quarter in Q2 2025, improving on the +0.1% growth in Q1 and beating forecasts of +0.5%.  The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) cut interest rates by 0.25% in July but kept rates unchanged... Read More